Wednesday, 07 July 2010 09:41

Poland – island of stability in the European sea of trouble

Paweł Świeboda for Caijing Magazine (China)

Political history of the world does not know of a more tragic event than the April air-crash which killed the Polish President, his wife and over ninety members of the country’s political elite. Politicians from all sides of the spectrum, from left to right, parished in the tragedy together with chiefs of the armed forces, head of the central bank and many others. The nation went through weeks of mourning, comparable only to what it experienced after the passing away of Pope John Paul II, a great Polish hero, five years ago. 

 

Everybody was in profound shock but the institutions of the state functioned perfectly well and a harmonious transition was ensured with no major question mark about the procedures or tasks to be undertaken. It confirmed that Poland is on the other side of the river in terms of democratic consolidation. We are in fact enjoying one of the most stable political periods since the changes of 1989. Should the tragic air-crash had happened in early nineties, it would have destabilised the country. Coming in 2010, it proved to be a political task but not a major systemic challenge. 

This is interesting because Poland has been known for a lively, if often disorderly, political life. When democracy was introduced after 1989, we had a couple of dozen parties in the parliament. Building a workable governing coalition on that basis was a nightmare. Governments would come and go with the shifting sands of the country’s politics. Consistency and long-termism seemed almost out of Poland’s reach. Up until today, no single government has ever been reelected in the country for a second term. Very often Prime Ministers have changed in-between the elections.

The reason why this has not produced major turbulence lies in a well-balanced politial system with a strong system of checks-and-balances. Government plays a key role in this system on the basis of a parliamentary majority but the president, who is elected in a popular vote, can veto legislation and hence keep the government in check.

It is the economics that provided for the continuity which the politics did not offer. Almost miraculously, the economy has always been shielded from political instability. There was a  good deal of consensus, even in the more politically charged times, that the economic fundamentals need to be sound and credible.

There is in fact no doubt that the successful economic transformation has been key to the growing political stability. Poland has enjoyed strong economic growth since the beginning of the last decade and has managed to ensure that the benefits of modernisation are enjoyed by people across the social spectrum. We often speak of „Poland A“ which is the more advanced, urban, Western part of the country and „Poland B“, the more rural, Eastern part. However, the difference is not unbridgeable and a lot of effort is made to address the problem.

Poland has also managed to escape difficulties in the midst of the current economic crisis. It was the only sizeable European economy to register growth in 2009. Prime Minister Donald Tusk speaks about the economy at the Warsaw Stock Exchange with the map of Europe behind him, all in red except for Poland as the „green island“, the term which has since been picked up to symbolise the country’s economic success. This good fortune is the result of several factors, including sound macroeconomic policy. The example of that is the upper limit of 60 percent debt-to-GDP which became a constitutional provision in 1997. A conservative banking policy has also helped as Poland stayed clear of the property bubbles experienced by some other European countries in recent years.

The decoupling of political and economic fortunes enabled Poland to carry out some of the more far-reaching and visionary reforms, like the pension system reform in the late 1990s. Moving away from the pay-as-you go system to a system based on fixed contributions ensured that the costs for the public purse would be limited and kept in check.

What very much helped Poland to consolidate internally is integration into the European Union. Not only because the EU is demanding when it comes to standards of democracy and rule of law. Primarily given that it proved such a big force for change and reform. There is no comparable process in the world today to accession to the European Union. It is not like joining any other international organisation. Negotiating the terms of entry is about everything across the board, from agriculture to consumer rights. It is the most thorough and comprehensive change of regime ever undertaken by any sovereign state. And it happens on a voluntary basis! Having decided to join the EU already in 1994, Poland had spent the next 10 years doing the necessary homework. It proved very helpful from the point of view of sorting out our own political and economic objectives and investing in the future. 

This is not to say that membership in the EU has been pure joy and that Poland has not raised any issues with the others. Far from it. We have from the beginning of our membership been known for having strong views and an independent mindset. Some have called us troublemakers for staking out our own positions and defending our own interests. But the experience has helped us to understand better the interdependent nature of today’s international relations and the compromises which need to be made along the way.

The early presidential elections which were called after the April air-crash feature two main candidates – Jarosław Kaczyński, the twin brother of the killed President and Bronisław Komorowski, the speaker of the parliament and leader of the governing Civic Platform. Both of them are old hands in the country’s politics. They have been around playing important roles in and out of government. Having said that, these are probably the most unemotional elections in Poland’s history with the two candidates presenting not dissimilar positions on all major issues.

Jarosław Kaczyński is more right wing on values and left wing on the economy. Bronisław Komorowski comes from a traditional and well-established family of Polish nobility, yet he is more liberal on values and more conservative on the economy. Kaczyński appeals to the more pre-modern, nationalist sentiments, the older and more rural population. Komorowski is attractive for the middle class, younger voters who are more widely travelled and open to the world. It is not, however, that there is a wide gap between the two candidates. The difference of style is more significant than the difference of substance. It is a beauty contest rather than a battle for ideas. That maybe less spectacular but is in itself a measure of success of the Polish political system. In good times, it is converging around the positions of the median, more centrist voter.

This election is also perhaps the first „post-modern“ election in Poland as the candidates are asked to make their position clear on issues such as in vitro fertilisation. For European standards, Poland is a very traditional country. The Catholic church continues to play an important role although religious practice is of more ceremonial nature and the priests have less of a say than they used to have in the past. It is the case that the Polish people cherish their individual freedoms and do not want the Church or the state to look into their lives, and even less so their bedrooms, but at the same time they are rather conservative when it comes to the evolution of the society and would not like to see rapid changes there.

There is finally the question of how Poland will in the future position itself in the world. It is the question that we, the Poles, are increasingly asking ourselves. We have spent the last six years making ourselves comfortable inside the European Union. It has been a huge success story for Poland. However, the region is not enough in the world in which the only way to prosper is to actively look for opportunities all around. Foreign policy may not be the crucial issue in these elections and the candidates do not go beyond the regular set of issues such as relations with Russia or Afghanistan but this wider question of how we fit in the process of globalisation and how we can benefit from it more actively, will be still have to be answered in the future.

As Greece burns and most of Europe is still deeply engulfed in the economic crisis, Poland is the island of stability. Some economist claim that we are facing a „golden decade“ in which a number of factors will work to our advantage, including the young and educated work force. Problems will come, including the demographic pressure, and we should be profoundly aware of them, getting in shape early on. But the national psyche does need a few celebratory moments as well.